Turkey’s recent sale of combat drones to Ukraine is complicating its working relationship with Russia. In October, the Ukrainian army released footage of its first use of the Turkish-made Bayraktar TB-2 drone striking a position controlled by Russian-backed separatists. The first accompanying article from Istanbul-based independent thinktank EDAM notes that Ukraine’s use of Bayraktar TB-2 drones against Russia-backed forces could escalate tensions between Turkey and Russia. As the second article from independent Turkish daily Gazete Duvar reports, Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia’s concerns over Turkey’s drone sale to Ukraine were justified and warned that Turkish drones could further destabilize the situation in Eastern Ukraine.
According to the first article, if Ukraine continues to wage drone warfare against Russia-backed forces in Eastern Ukraine, Russia could move against Turkey, especially in Idlib, Syria. Russia had already struck targets near Turkish-controlled areas in Syria. Meanwhile, Syrian regime forces, with Russian support, have built up heavily near Idlib. Russia could also further wage counter-drone and electronic warfare to support the Russia-backed separatists.
In addition to Ukraine, Turkey has made a deal to sell TB-2 drones to Poland and is looking for customers among Baltic countries. This would likely create even more tension between Turkey and Russia, leaving Turkey even more isolated after it has faced various consequences from its Western allies for buying Russian S-400 missile systems.
It is also possible that the Kremlin will respond to Ankara as Kiev’s UAV supplier, if the Ukrainian Armed Forces systematically use UAVs against pro-Russian militias or increase the operational tempo in UAV activity.
Source: Dr. Can Kasapoğlu, “Ukrayna’nin Donbas’taki SİHA Taarruzu Türkiye-Rusya Gerilimini Tetikleyebilir (Ukraine’s Drone Strike In Donbass Can Spark A Turkish-Russian Escalation),” EDAM (Center for Economic and Foreign Affairs Research, an Istanbul-based independent Turkish think-tank), 27 October 2021. https://edam.org.tr/ukraynanin-siha-taarruzu-bir-turkiye-rusya-gerilimine-neden-olabilir/
On October 26th, 2021, the Ukrainian Armed Forces used Turkey-transferred Bayraktar TB-2 unmanned aerial systems to destroy an artillery position of the Russia-backed rebels in Donbass.…
The Ukrainian Armed Forces had previously resorted to Bayraktar TB-2 unmanned aerial vehicles, mainly in the roles of intelligence, surveillance, target detection, and reconnaissance missions against Russia-backed separatists. However, this time, Kiev took the use of UAVs to a different dimension with a direct kinetic strike.
Turkey’s position as an exporter of armed drones to countries such as Ukraine and Poland and ironically, being the only NATO ally that procured the S-400 strategic SAM system presents Moscow with a complex political-military landscape.
It is also possible that the Kremlin will respond to Ankara as Kiev’s UAV supplier, if the Ukrainian Armed Forces systematically use UAVs against pro-Russian militias or increase the operational tempo in UAV activity.
One particular area that Russia can bleed Turkey is Idlib, Northwestern Syria…
The [drone strike in Eastern Ukraine] may also trigger an increase in Russia’s counter-drone and electronic warfare support to Ukrainian separatists. In light of the lessons-learned from Syria, the Russian defense industrial & technological base have long invested in hard-kill and soft-kill drone countermeasures, such as the new, drone-specific interceptors for the Tor-M2 air defense system and Sapsan Konvoy electronic counter-drone system.
Ankara and Kiev enjoy burgeoning defense cooperation with co-production and technology transfer opportunities. Besides, Turkey has already agreed to provide Poland with Bayraktar TB-2s, and Turkish robotic warfare solutions manufacturers are eyeing the Baltic weapons market.
In a broad geopolitical axis ranging from Syria and Libya to Karabakh, Turkish and Russian interests remain at odds. Overall, while the S-400 procurement has portrayed an uptrend in Turkish-Russian bilateral ties, the two nations have deep strategic divergences and rivalries.
Source: “Rusya’dan Türkiye’ye ‘Bayraktar’ eleştirisi: Endişelerimiz haklı çıktı (“Bayraktar” criticism from Russia to Turkey: Our concerns were justified),” Gazete Duvar (an independent Turkish Daily), 27 October 2021. https://www.gazeteduvar.com.tr/rusyadan-turkiyeye-bayraktarelestirisi-endiselerimiz-hakli-cikti-haber-1539815
Concerns about Turkey’s decision to sell drones to Ukraine are becoming reality, and Turkish drones risk destabilizing the situation in eastern Ukraine.
Source: Dr. Can Kasapoğlu, “Ukrayna’nin Donbas’taki SİHA Taarruzu Türkiye-Rusya Gerilimini Tetikleyebilir (Ukraine’s Drone Strike In Donbass Can Spark A Turkish-Russian Escalation),” EDAM (Center for Economic and Foreign Affairs Research, an Istanbul-based independent Turkish think-tank), 27 October 2021. https://edam.org.tr/ukraynanin-siha-taarruzu-bir-turkiye-rusya-gerilimine-neden-olabilir/
On October 26th, 2021, the Ukrainian Armed Forces used Turkey-transferred Bayraktar TB-2 unmanned aerial systems to destroy an artillery position of the Russia-backed rebels in Donbass.…
The Ukrainian Armed Forces had previously resorted to Bayraktar TB-2 unmanned aerial vehicles, mainly in the roles of intelligence, surveillance, target detection, and reconnaissance missions against Russia-backed separatists. However, this time, Kiev took the use of UAVs to a different dimension with a direct kinetic strike.
Turkey’s position as an exporter of armed drones to countries such as Ukraine and Poland and ironically, being the only NATO ally that procured the S-400 strategic SAM system presents Moscow with a complex political-military landscape.
It is also possible that the Kremlin will respond to Ankara as Kiev’s UAV supplier, if the Ukrainian Armed Forces systematically use UAVs against pro-Russian militias or increase the operational tempo in UAV activity.
One particular area that Russia can bleed Turkey is Idlib, Northwestern Syria…
The [drone strike in Eastern Ukraine] may also trigger an increase in Russia’s counter-drone and electronic warfare support to Ukrainian separatists. In light of the lessons-learned from Syria, the Russian defense industrial & technological base have long invested in hard-kill and soft-kill drone countermeasures, such as the new, drone-specific interceptors for the Tor-M2 air defense system and Sapsan Konvoy electronic counter-drone system.
Ankara and Kiev enjoy burgeoning defense cooperation with co-production and technology transfer opportunities. Besides, Turkey has already agreed to provide Poland with Bayraktar TB-2s, and Turkish robotic warfare solutions manufacturers are eyeing the Baltic weapons market.
In a broad geopolitical axis ranging from Syria and Libya to Karabakh, Turkish and Russian interests remain at odds. Overall, while the S-400 procurement has portrayed an uptrend in Turkish-Russian bilateral ties, the two nations have deep strategic divergences and rivalries.
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